Can Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill surpass Calvin Johnson's NFL-record 1,964 receiving yards?

Ten years agone this week, Detroit Lions Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson broke the NFL grounds for receiving yards successful a season. He finished the 2012 run with 1,964 yards, a people that has withstood 2 notable challenges -- and faces 2 much this season.

Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson has 1,623 receiving yards with 3 games near to play and is connected gait to decorativeness 7 yards up of Johnson's record. The Miami Dolphins' Tyreek Hill has 1,529 yards and would request to adhd 36 yards to his per-game mean to get there. Both players person already exceeded their vocation highs successful receiving yardage successful their archetypal twelvemonth successful caller violative systems, and each volition person the vantage of an further regular-season game.

Johnson broke San Francisco 49ers Hall of Famer Jerry Rice's grounds of 1,848 yards successful his 15th crippled of the 2012 season, and reached his last full successful crippled No. 16. The NFL added a 17th crippled to its regular play successful 2021.

With the vantage of the other game, the Los Angeles Rams' Cooper Kupp came wrong 17 yards of Johnson's grounds past season. The closest anyone came earlier past was successful 2015, erstwhile the Atlanta Falcons' Julio Jones finished with 1,871 receiving yards.

Johnson was not disposable for remark this week, but successful an interview with writer Graham Bensinger earlier this year, helium expressed astonishment that the grounds hadn't yet been breached and said it was lone a substance of clip earlier the 17-game play ends it.

"I deliberation you got to enactment it successful context," Johnson said. "Prior to immoderate regularisation changes, I deliberation that's the lone mode to bash it. More records volition decidedly travel down. You've got an other crippled to bash it. It won't beryllium casual by immoderate means, but it'll happen."

Jefferson leads the NFL not lone successful yardage but besides receptions (111) and targets (158) portion playing for caller manager Kevin O'Connell, who was the Rams' violative coordinator past play arsenic Kupp made his tally astatine the record. Hill, meanwhile, has rewarded the Dolphins' determination to get him during the offseason for first-year caput manager Mike McDaniel's scheme. He ranks 2nd successful yardage, receptions (109) and targets (152).

Let's instrumentality a person look astatine the seasons Jefferson and Hill person produced and complaint their chances for breaking Johnson's record.

Justin Jefferson: 1,623 yards

Yards distant from breaking record: 341

Vikings' remaining opponents: vs. New York Giants (pass defence ranked No. 16), astatine Green Bay Packers (No. 3), astatine Chicago Bears (No. 17)

Why has Jefferson been truthful dominant? Minutes aft the Vikings introduced him arsenic manager successful January, O'Connell grabbed a squad staffer's telephone and initiated a FaceTime telephone with his prima receiver. As Jefferson grinned from receptor to ear, O'Connell told him: "I anticipation you're ready, due to the fact that you've got to bash it all."

Jefferson took that situation literally. He has played 95.6% of the Vikings' violative snaps, an eye-popping fig astatine a presumption that requires changeless downfield running. About a 3rd of his 41 missed snaps came aft O'Connell inserted backups during a lopsided nonaccomplishment to the Dallas Cowboys. For context, Hill has played 75% of the Dolphins' snaps, having rested connected 207 plays.

Jefferson raised eyebrows soon aft his 23rd day this summer, predicting helium would beryllium considered the apical receiver successful the NFL by the extremity of 2022. He is good connected his way, having earned much Pro Bowl votes than immoderate subordinate successful the NFC and positioning himself favorably to gain his archetypal All-Pro honors.

Of each the elite skills Jefferson has displayed, 2 basal out: his quality to get unfastened and/or execute favorable presumption connected defenders, and his capableness to drawback and clasp connected to the shot successful postulation -- particularly aft immoderate brutal hits from defenders.

A caller illustration of his route-running prowess surfaced past Saturday successful the 4th fourth of the Vikings' historical comeback triumph implicit the Indianapolis Colts. Matched up for overmuch of the crippled against cornerback Stephon Gilmore, a two-time All-Pro, Jefferson ran a whip way fashioned aft a play that Los Angeles Rams receiver Cooper Kupp developed 2 years agone erstwhile O'Connell and existent Vikings violative coordinator Wes Phillips were Rams adjunct coaches.

The way required Jefferson to initially caput toward the sideline from the Colts' 8-yard line. He past made an archetypal chopped inside, gave Gilmore a nasty stutter-step and past changed absorption again toward the sideline. Gilmore fell respective steps behind, starring to an casual touchdown.

"He ran 3 routes successful one," Vikings cornerback Patrick Peterson said. "The assurance helium has successful himself is amazing. His attraction to details connected however to get unfastened [and] however elaborate helium had to beryllium to tally that whip way connected a feline similar [Gilmore] who understands and knows the benignant of routes that are coming, was conscionable incredible."

On the Vikings' adjacent possession, Gilmore threw his enarthrosis astatine Jefferson conscionable arsenic helium jumped to drawback a 3-yard pass, hitting him squarely connected the chin. Jefferson maintained power of the shot adjacent arsenic his caput flew backmost and officials threw their flags.

Jefferson has absorbed 3 penalized hits this month, and respective much that went unflagged. He has lone 1 driblet each play according to ESPN Stats & Information, 1 that backmost Kirk Cousins threw a spot down him.

Cousins was speaking aft Saturday with his father, who said, "I deliberation his champion trait mightiness conscionable beryllium his quality to bent connected to the football."

"I said, 'I agree,'" Cousins said. "There are a batch of different traits that are hard to disregard astir Justin, but I said, 'Some of these catches helium is making ... they're conscionable difficult.' To perceive footsteps and not shrink back, not driblet the ball, not clasp on, and his quality to consistently clasp connected successful postulation is conscionable an elite trait."

Jefferson connected nearing the record: "If I adjacent get adjacent to it, it's conscionable going to beryllium breathtaking that I adjacent got adjacent to it. Of people I would privation to get to it, but if we marque it to the large extremity arsenic a team, the grounds doesn't matter."

Other factors affecting the race: Two of the Vikings' last 3 games are scheduled to beryllium played outdoors and successful acold weather: Week 17 astatine Chicago's Soldier Field and Week 18 astatine Green Bay's Lambeau Field. Jefferson has exceeded 100 receiving yards successful 4 of his 5 outdoor games, including 193 astatine Buffalo successful Week 10, but the docket could airs a mild challenge. Since the commencement of the century, teams playing December/January games successful Chicago and Green Bay person averaged astir 11% less passing yards per crippled compared to indoor games implicit the aforesaid clip period.

Of much relevance, however, is that the Vikings person already won the NFC North and person lone a tiny accidental to clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed. If they're playing for thing by Week 17 oregon 18, it volition beryllium to support the No. 2 seed. Jefferson leads each NFL receivers successful snaps (881) and routes (573), and O'Connell mightiness prioritize his wellness implicit playing clip -- if helium tin merchantability Jefferson connected it.

"He's a feline that's going to combat maine each clip we effort to commencement having that conversation," O'Connell said. "But we'll prime our spots." -- Kevin Seifert

Stat to know: Jefferson has excelled extracurricular the numbers. He has 1,073 receiving yards connected passes thrown to the sidelines, implicit 300 much than the next-closest receiver (Raiders' Davante Adams, 718), according to ESPN Stats & Information. Jefferson already has the sixth-most yards connected passes thrown to the sideline successful a azygous play since tracking for that began successful 2006).

Final yardage prediction: 1,923. Jefferson has a existent changeable astatine the record, with his projection checking successful 18 yards short. The projection assumes a 30% people share, which is simply a hairsbreadth supra his 29% complaint this play (though helium has been astatine oregon supra 30% successful 3 consecutive games). One imaginable roadblock is the schedule, arsenic the Giants fertile 17th, Packers 27th and Bears 16th successful receiving yards allowed to WRs. -- Mike Clay

Tyreek Hill: 1,529 yards

Yards distant from breaking record: 435

Dolphins' remaining opponents: vs. Packers (pass defence ranked No. 3), astatine New England Patriots (No. 9), vs. New York Jets (No. 4)

Why has Hill been truthful dominant? How rapidly tin Hill alteration a game? About 8 minutes of crippled time. Hill gave a preview of what his archetypal play with the Dolphins would beryllium similar during the team's thrilling comeback triumph implicit the Baltimore Ravens successful Week 2, during which helium recorded 4 catches for 138 yards and 2 touchdowns successful the last 7:54 seconds of the game.

"This feline is special. When you spot [Hill] retired determination you privation to screen him a definite way," Dolphins moving backmost Raheem Mostert said. "Then you got [quarterback Tua Tagovailoa] conscionable launching the ball. That's 2 touchdowns close there, enactment america close backmost successful the game."

Hill would ace the top-10 database successful receiving yards adjacent if you counted lone games successful which helium recorded much than 100 yards. He has shattered preseason skepticism astir his effectiveness distant from backmost Patrick Mahomes, manager Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs, mounting a vocation precocious successful receiving yards with 3 games remaining successful the season.

His velocity is his trademark accomplishment and helium has incorporated that into his way running. According to NFL NextGen Stats, helium has been wide unfastened (more than 5 yards of separation from the nearest defender) connected 24.3% of his targets this season.

The interaction Hill has had extends adjacent beyond his ain statline. His beingness connected the tract opens things up for teammates similar chap receivers Jaylen Waddle and Trent Sherfield -- the second of whom exploited a spread against the San Francisco 49ers' sum successful Week 13 for a 75-yard touchdown erstwhile information Talanoa Hufanga followed a motioning Hill pre-snap.

Hill connected nearing the record: "My occupation each and each week is conscionable to absorption connected the adjacent game. So I can't look guardant -- arsenic atrocious arsenic I privation to beryllium present and say, 'Hey, I privation to interruption the record,' that would beryllium existent selfish of me. I cognize my occupation arsenic 1 of the leaders connected this squad is conscionable to marque definite we're doing the close happening and I'm besides doing the close thing."

Other factors affecting the race: The Dolphins play 2 morganatic lockdown cornerbacks implicit their adjacent 3 games successful the New York Jets' Sauce Gardner and the Green Bay Packers' Jaire Alexander -- which could pave the mode for large weeks from Waddle. But Miami needs to bushed some the Jets and the New England Patriots successful bid to marque its archetypal postseason since 2016 -- truthful manager Mike McDaniel volition surely propulsion retired each imaginable halt successful bid to bash so.

Hill has ne'er shied from pugnacious matchups and the Dolphins person often funneled their discourtesy done him. The present seven-time Pro Bowler has much games with double-digit targets (9) than without and has astatine slightest 80 receiving yards successful 5 of his past 7 games. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: Hill has 767 receiving yards connected targets wherever the closest defender was 3 oregon much yards from him, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He leads each wide receivers with 70 targets erstwhile helium is open.

Final yardage prediction: 1,838. The projections amusement Hill with 9 much receiving yards than Jefferson, but, arsenic noted, he's astir 100 yards disconnected Jefferson's gait truthful a agelong changeable to interruption Johnson's record. Hill is projected with a hefty 32% people share, which aligns precisely with his complaint done Week 15. Hill's docket is simply a spot of a roadblock, arsenic the Packers fertile 27th, the Patriots 22nd and the Jets 31st successful receiving yards allowed to wide receivers. -- Mike Clay