Five props that pop

Michael Pittman Jr. caught 10 balls but managed lone 60 yards (*puke emoji*), which was the astir stinging UNDER of the play for me. Elsewhere, crippled travel didn't spell D'Onta Foreman's way, and Miles Sanders cooled disconnected successful the Windy City. On the agleam side, Travis Etienne Jr. bounced backmost and Drake London continued to sky.

Ultimately, 2 of my 5 picks hit. I'm motivated to amended connected those results this go-around. Utilizing ESPN's metrics database and immoderate assistance from stats ace Kyle Soppe, I'm present to assistance you unafraid the container successful phantasy and astatine the books.

New York Giants astatine Minnesota Vikings (-4, 48)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

Pick: Daniel Jones OVER 221.5 passing yards (-145)

The QB presumption has been an unexpected season-long headache for phantasy players. Injuries to prima signal-callers Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson and unpredictable upwind are forcing managers to see different options successful the 2nd week of the phantasy shot playoffs. The stakes are undeniably high. Thankfully, Daniel Jones draws an indoor matchup against a generous walk defense.

Minnesota has fixed up 205 passing yards to an opposing backmost 11 times this season. Admittedly, the Vikings held Matt Ryan to nether 200 passing yards successful a scratching matter past weekend. But Mac Jones (382), Mike White (369) and Jared Goff (330) each went disconnected for implicit 300 passing yards successful the 3 games anterior to Week 15.

Additionally, the Vikings are allowing 7.9 yards per effort (second most). That means Jones would request to propulsion the shot lone 28 times to wide the supra line. As it turns out, helium has recorded astatine slightest 27 walk attempts successful 12 of 14 games this season. Danny Dimes -- similar a batch of QBs -- gets flustered nether pressure. Interestingly, helium gains astir 38% much yards per walk erstwhile not pressured. That sets up nicely against a Vikings squad that creates unit astatine the fourth-lowest rate.

Jones' ceiling is partially capped owed to the dearth of weapons surrounding him. However, with the emergence of Darius Slayton (more connected him successful a bit) and with a vintage-looking Saquon Barkley, Jones could flirt with his passing yards projection connected Saturday. He's a top-10 play to watercourse and a acquisition to phantasy managers needing to Band-Aid the presumption for a week.

Pick: Darius Slayton OVER 3.5 receptions (-166)

Slayton flexed his mode into galore a phantasy roster implicit the bye weeks, signaling double-digit efforts successful six games since Week 5. He has materialized arsenic the G-Men's No. 1 WR, starring the squad successful snaps (551) and targets (62). In a crippled with the second-highest over/under of the slate (48) and with his squad a 4-point underdog, the Auburn merchandise figures to champion his mean of 3.1 catches per contention astatine U.S. Bank Stadium connected Saturday.

Minnesota has allowed the third-most phantasy points to opposing WRs connected the season. A spot much digging reveals that the Vikings person fixed up THE MOST receptions to opposing wideouts implicit 2022 (211) and successful the past 4 weeks (67). Moreover, Minnesota allowed passes to WRs to beryllium completed astatine the third-highest complaint (67.8%). That bodes good for a subordinate who has averaged 7 looks per contention implicit his past 5 outings.

As mentioned above, the Vikings person managed the fourth-lowest unit rate. That's applicable to Slayton due to the fact that helium has been targeted connected 25.6% of routes erstwhile Daniel Jones is NOT pressured (the fig drops to 12.5% erstwhile Jones does consciousness the heat). Slayton mightiness not beryllium worthy of a commencement successful redraft, but he's an absorbing enactment successful DFS and projects to drawback 5 balls for astir 50 yards.

Washington Commanders astatine San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 37.5)
Saturday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.

Pick: Taylor Heinicke OVER 0.5 INTs (-169)

The refs whitethorn not person been connected Heinicke's broadside past Sunday, but the turnover gods surely were. Under unit each night, Heinicke attempted galore passes that were millimeters distant from being picked. He's not apt to beryllium arsenic fortunate facing the 49ers' staunch defence successful Week 16.

San Francisco has generated 14 INTs (behind lone Philadelphia) successful 2022. In fact, the 49ers are intercepting a league-high 3.6% of passes erstwhile the squad does not blitz. That speaks to the dominance of the 49ers' D-line. San Fran tin get unit without sending six men, which leaves much defenders disposable to prime disconnected a bewildered QB. It besides spells occupation for a Commanders squad that has allowed unit astatine the third-highest complaint since Week 7 erstwhile NOT blitzed.

Part of Heinicke's entreaty is the gutsiness with which helium plays. That bravado tin besides pb to mistakes, though, peculiarly erstwhile playing catch-up. The Commandeers are 6.5-point underdogs, which mightiness origin Heinicke to property and effect successful an abundance of off-target throws. That's really a inclination that has followed the Old Dominion merchandise implicit 2022, arsenic helium owns the third-highest off-target complaint connected the play (ahead of lone Zach Wilson and Davis Mills).

Yikes. Obviously, Heinicke is not the watercourse you privation oregon request successful Week 16.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4, 41.5) astatine New England Patriots
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.

Pick: Ja'Marr Chase UNDER 71.5 receiving yards (-117)

Ugh, this 1 makes maine nervous. And I decidedly don't privation to manifest a dud of an outing for an implicit prima successful the phantasy semis. Yet, this fig seems awfully precocious for a crippled with a full of 41.5 projected points.

Believe it oregon not, Chase has gone nether 71 yards successful 4 of 10 games this season. Each of those contests has been connected the road. The aforesaid happening was existent successful 2021, arsenic helium went nether the supra enactment successful 9 games portion six of them were away.

That betters the likelihood of an nether astatine Foxborough, peculiarly erstwhile noting the Pats' tendency to make chaos. New England ranks 3rd successful unit rate. Joe Burrow is fearless successful the pocket, but helium moves distant from his No. 1 WR erstwhile feeling the heat. Chase is being targeted connected lone 16.1% of routes erstwhile Burrow is pressured. When fixed time, however, Burrow looks to Chase connected 31.6% of his routes. That bodes good for Tee Higgins -- not Chase -- travel Saturday.

Ultimately, the second-year phenom remains a top-six play successful redraft. His quality successful the reddish country (22 reddish portion targets, WR2) is beastly. However, noting a caller dip successful ratio (6.3 YPT implicit Weeks 14 and 15), his yardage full mightiness travel down connected Christmas Eve.

Detroit Lions (-2.5, 43.5) astatine Carolina Panthers
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

Pick: Jamaal Williams OVER 41.5 rushing yards (-117)

Williams has been a touchdown monster, starring the presumption with 14 scores frankincense acold into 2022. His accumulation has waned, however, implicit the past 3 weeks arsenic helium has gone nether 40 rushing yards successful each contention since Week 13. With the Lions 2.5-point favorites astatine Carolina, however, I deliberation he's owed for a spot of a bounce-back.

Charlotte is by nary means a cold-weather locale. However, the Queen City is expecting temperatures successful the debased 30s with upwind gusts up to 15 mph this weekend. Jared Goff -- ever the Cali kid -- is not a instrumentality of chilly climates. That diagnostic has perchance crept into the Lions' crippled plan, arsenic Detroit has recorded the fifth-highest unreserved complaint outdoors (45.7%).

While D'Andre Swift's full touches person accrued since returning from injury, Williams continues to thrive arsenic the team's pb rusher. The erstwhile Packer has posted double-digit carries successful each crippled this play and is averaging 15.5 totes connected the year. He is undoubtedly the Lions' between-the-tackles grinder. That sets up good against a Panthers squad that has allowed the seventh-most yards per RB transportation up the mediate arsenic good arsenic the second-most yards per transportation (up the middle) earlier contact.

Williams remains frustratingly TD babelike successful redraft. But his ratio figures to person a boost successful this matchup. Consider him a level flex successful the RB30 range.

Follow Liz connected Twitter @LizLoza_FF