Odds, picks and tips: Takes on Eagles-Cowboys, Packers-Dolphins and more

Week 16 of the NFL play gives america a large slate of games connected Saturday and a trio of matchups Christmas Day, including the Packers and Dolphins successful Miami.

What is worthy looking astatine from a betting perspective? And what are the champion plays to assistance you marque astute wagering decisions?

Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, phantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings, ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz connection their insights into the games with tips and picks.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless different indicated.

Six NFL games Saturday person a projected upwind chill of azygous digits oregon worse. And determination are presently 7 games with an over/under successful the 30s, the astir successful a week since 2011. How bash you attack handicapping with the acold upwind and debased totals?

Fulghum: I thin toward the nether and the superior quarterback, particularly erstwhile the somesthesia dips beneath 20 degrees Fahrenheit. That's the threshold I use. For instance, I similar the Bengals -3.5 and the nether successful their matchup astatine New England. This is not an extremity each beryllium each -- but that is mostly wherever I commencement and past analyse if determination is immoderate data/trend/information that has maine passing oregon moving to the different side.

Schatz: I enactment unneurotic my ain methodology for predicting over/under totals this season, and it does relationship for some somesthesia (under freezing) and upwind speed. Interestingly, it doesn't person upwind velocity arsenic important until you get to 20 mph oregon higher. That's the mean upwind anticipation for lone 2 games this weekend, New Orleans astatine Cleveland and Buffalo astatine Chicago. So my strategy favors going implicit the full a small spot connected astir of the cold-weather games this weekend. The large objection is Houston astatine Tennessee. Yes, the acold upwind is going to get arsenic southbound arsenic Nashville, with a predicted precocious astir 15 degrees Fahrenheit, and fixed the prime of the quarterbacks successful this crippled (Davis Mills and Malik Willis), my strategy predicts a full nether 30 compared to a Vegas full of 35.5.

Moody: Extreme upwind tin negatively interaction games. Football tin beryllium played successful the rainfall oregon snow. In particular, I wage adjacent attraction to forecasted sustained winds and upwind gusts. Especially if they are greater than 20 mph, this could disrupt an offense's passing game. High winds combined with rainfall oregon snowfall are not ideal. Like Fulghum, I thin towards the under. When it comes to upwind successful Week 16, I'm astir acrophobic astir the Bills versus the Bears and the Browns versus the Saints.

Dolan: It's 1 happening to play successful acold temperatures; it's different happening to play successful precocious wind. I look much astatine the upwind than temperature. For example, the Saints-Browns matchup features the lowest full connected the committee with upwind gusts from 35-40 mph, expected snowfall and somesthesia that volition consciousness similar it's minus double-digits. Even if you effort to instrumentality vantage of kickers successful these situations, upwind gusts this precocious volition person to marque an interaction each around.

Marks: I'm going to person amusive with this "Cyclone Bomb". Since the conception is acold / atrocious upwind games predominantly go under. I'm going to play a six-point, six-team teaser -- teasing the games -- expecting to get deed drastically by parent quality to the under. Bills / Bears (Under 46.5), Bengals-Pats (Under 47.5 points), Seahawks-Chiefs (Under 55.5) Saints-Browns (Under 38 points), Falcons-Ravens (Under 41 points) Raiders-Steelers (Under 44 points). And pursuing up connected Schatz's proposal -- I'm besides going to play New Orleans to a marque a tract extremity successful the archetypal 14 minutes of the Bengals vs Pats crippled astatine (-120).

The Philadelphia Eagles-Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 46.5) NFC East conflict saw important enactment question portion Jalen Hurts' availability was successful question. With Gardner Minshew present starting for the Eagles this week, however are you approaching this matchup arsenic Philadelphia attempts to clinch home-field vantage passim the playoffs.

Fulghum: I love the over (46.5) successful this matchup. I'm not definite the Eagles' discourtesy is going to endure a monolithic driblet successful ratio and potency. Minshew is 1 of the amended backups successful the league. He has a 41/12 TD/INT ratio for his career. The situation astir him is arsenic bully arsenic determination is successful the full NFL -- elite OL, elite accomplishment presumption players (TE Dallas Goedert is returning) and a coaching unit that has consistently demonstrated an quality to germinate and accommodate strategy in-season and in-game. On the different side, the erstwhile daunting Dallas defence has softened considerably owed to injuries successful the secondary and present astatine LB with Leighton Vander Esch. Dallas and Philly are besides 2 of the fastest-paced offenses successful the full league. This is besides the uncommon crippled this play played indoors and unaffected by the upwind harming overmuch of the slate. I deliberation we spot an entertaining game.

At archetypal I loved the spot for Dallas laying the points, but aft further digging into Minshew and the Eagles' violative structure, I somewhat thin present to taking Philly positive the points. I deliberation they tin triumph this crippled outright.

Moody: My proposal is to stake connected the Eagles and instrumentality the points. With 22 vocation starts, Minshew is simply a precise susceptible backup. In each of those starts, helium averaged 243.6 passing yards. Minshew has an fantabulous supporting formed that includes A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. A beardown Eagles violative enactment that tin tally artifact and walk artifact good volition enactment him successful a bully presumption to win against the Cowboys. There is simply a beardown accidental Philadelphia volition play good capable to support this crippled adjacent oregon outright win.

Dolan: I americium looking astatine Miles Sanders implicit 68.5 rushing yards. He had 18 carries for 71 yards successful the archetypal gathering this season. With Minshew nether center, the Eagles whitethorn person to thin connected the crushed game. Sanders is coming disconnected a dilatory week with 42 rushing yards against the Bears, but this week I judge helium volition measurement up against a Dallas defence that has been generous to moving backs implicit the past 3 weeks, allowing 103 rushing yards to Travis Etienne Jr., 78 rushing yards to Dameon Pierce and 82 rushing yards to Jonathan Taylor. I don't afloat spot this Dallas defense. The Eagles' discourtesy volition instrumentality vantage of Sanders connected the ground.

Marks: Anyone knows maine -- knows I emotion Minshew! He has 22 starts nether his loop and has played successful 30 games. In 2021, helium sported a 68% completion percent with the Eagles, past play helium averaged astir 9 yards per walk attempt. Has a 41 to 12 TD-INT ratio implicit his vocation and perchance gets Dallas Goedert backmost arsenic a acquisition from Saint Nick (Not Siriani of course). The Eagles' defence is archetypal successful takeaways, meantime Prescott can't assistance but propulsion interceptions (he has 9 since Week 10). I emotion the Eagles getting the points and a large spot to usage them is successful a six-point, two-team teaser with (49ers -.5, Eagles +10.5, Bills -2, Giants +10, oregon Packers +9.5).

The New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings, some presently successful the NFC playoff race, quadrate disconnected successful Minnesota coming disconnected of affectional wins. Do you spot the Vikings (-4, 48) to screen against the Giants oregon volition New York support rolling aft its large triumph implicit Washington?

Fulghum: I deliberation it's intolerable to spot this Vikings squad to bash anything. They surely aren't arsenic bully arsenic their grounds suggests. Kudos for completing the largest comeback successful NFL history, but they trailed Matt Ryan and the Indianapolis Colts 33-0 astatine halftime. That matters. Although it's hard to similar thing astir the Giants' discourtesy beyond Saquon Barkley, Brian Daboll and his squad person consistently demonstrated an quality to transcend expectations this year. I person a flimsy lean toward the G-Men positive the points successful 1 of the harder games connected the slate to handicap.

As acold arsenic the full is concerned, I was amazed to spot it posted truthful precocious astatine 48. This is different crippled indoors that volition beryllium unaffected by the inclement upwind we'll spot elsewhere. I expected this full to beryllium thing person to 44-45, truthful it acceptable disconnected alarm bells erstwhile I archetypal took a look. After further investigating, determination are important reasons wherefore the full was posted overmuch higher. For me, it's a stay-away owed to the probe and my intuition being truthful diametrically opposed, but the marketplace is expecting different shootout astatine U.S. Bank, truthful bash with that what you volition if you deliberation the Giants tin support up.

Schatz: It's the Fraud Bowl! Two teams that precocious stats deliberation are rather overrated based connected their win-loss records. The Vikings are an insane 10-0 successful one-possession games. The Giants are an awesome 8-2-1.

Our DVOA ratings really enactment the Giants (22nd) somewhat higher than the Vikings (25th) astatine this point. The Vikings person the amended defense, but the Giants are amended connected offense, which is much predictive. Even if you deliberation the Vikings are the amended team, however, I'm not definite however we extremity up with Vikings -4. The Vikings person played truthful galore adjacent games, and truthful person the Giants -- doesn't it look predestined that this crippled should decorativeness wrong a tract extremity arsenic well? I wouldn't telephone the Giants' covering this dispersed "still rolling," but I bash deliberation it volition beryllium different adjacent crippled for 2 reasonably adjacent teams and frankincense I'm blessed to instrumentality Giants +4.

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On Christmas Day, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers effort to enactment live successful the NFC playoff contention successful Miami against the Dolphins (-4, 50). Can the Dolphins bounce backmost aft their adjacent nonaccomplishment successful Buffalo oregon are you siding with Rodgers and the Packers?

Fulghum: I privation to emotion the Packers here, but it's a truly pugnacious spot. Miami volition person a 48-hour remainder vantage and location field, to boot. Rodgers has besides (for inexplicable reasons) struggled tremendously playing shot games successful the authorities of Florida. If anything, I would default to playing the under successful this game. That's ever scary with the explosive play quality of the Miami offense, but some of these teams are rather deliberate connected offense, utilizing overmuch of the play timepiece each drawback and lowering wide play measurement successful their crippled environments.

Marks: Give maine the Packers and the points! Aaron Rodgers is 14-9 ATS arsenic a dog, and the Packers person covered 8 of their past 9 games. Offensively, they are the healthiest they person been each play -- with a afloat aerial raid arsenal, and AJ Dillon passing concussion protocol. Miami's defence is spent -- having played 250 snaps the past 3 games, and their discourtesy has been sputtering -- ranked 21st successful that clip span arsenic well.

The Christmas nighttime crippled features 2 reeling teams successful the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals. Do you spot Tom Brady and the Bucs (-7.5, 40.5) to laic the points oregon are you taking the location 'dog?

Kezirian: I americium playing the Bucs successful a six-point teaser with Baltimore. Tampa has its issues and is the worst screen squad successful the league, but Arizona is starting a third-string quarterback. Trace McSorley makes his archetypal vocation commencement and it's connected a squad that whitethorn occurrence its coach. If the Bucs can't get the win, past they should conscionable battalion it in.

Schatz: Our DVOA ratings inactive similar the Buccaneers arsenic the champion squad successful the NFC South, and we peculiarly similar the passing game, adjacent though accepted contented says it has been unspeakable for weeks. Tampa Bay inactive ranks 12th successful passing DVOA, though the discourtesy is dragged down by a moving crippled that ranks 30th. Even portion the Bucs person been struggling implicit the past 4 games since their bye week, we person Tampa's walk discourtesy ranked 17th. Oh, and we inactive person the Tampa defence successful the apical 10. Now comparison this to Arizona, which is 30th successful discourtesy and 27th successful defence for the year. That's earlier we get to the Cardinals being stuck with their third-string quarterback, Trace McSorley. He's going to person a truly hard clip with this Buccaneers' defense. Among different things, McSorley apt can't onslaught their weakness successful the heavy mediate portion of the field. I bash spot Brady and the Bucs to laic the points, though that's trusting the Bucs' defence against McSorley much than it is trusting Brady and his receivers.

Moody: My proposal is to bet connected the under. The Buccaneers fertile 28th with 17.6 points per crippled portion the Cardinals fertile 18th with 20.9 points. Arizona volition besides person to commencement third-string backmost Trace McSorley. An violative bonanza doesn't look to beryllium successful the cards for this game. In presumption of tally blocking and walk blocking, the Buccaneers' violative enactment has struggled each season. Brady and Tampa Bay's inconsistent discourtesy could beryllium disrupted by the Cardinals' antiaircraft front. The nether has deed successful 10 of the Buccaneers' past 14 games.