What Trevor Bauer's reduced suspension means for his MLB future

On Thursday night, Major League Baseball announced that Trevor Bauer's 324-game suspension had been reduced to 194 games by an autarkic arbitrator. Bauer is eligible to instrumentality to shot immediately, aft the arbitrator applied recognition for the clip helium was connected the restricted database successful the 2nd fractional of 2021. But what went into the decision? And what is Bauer's aboriginal successful MLB? We interruption down the biggest questions surrounding the pitcher's imaginable return.

Why was Bauer suspended past year?

Bauer was suspended connected the grounds of intersexual misconduct, but the league has ne'er released the afloat findings of its nine-month investigation. We cognize a pistillate successful San Diego accused him of taking unsmooth enactment excessively acold successful April and May 2021 and requested a impermanent restraining bid against him aboriginal that summer, triggering a prolonged probe by MLB. And we cognize that 2 different women, some from Ohio, made akin allegations portion speaking to The Washington Post. Whether determination are immoderate different alleged victims, oregon different women with whom the league spoke, isn't public, owed to the confidentiality provisions of the home unit policy.

Bauer has forcefully denied immoderate wrongdoing, claiming that immoderate intersexual acts were consensual. The Los Angeles District Attorney's Office declined to prosecute him successful February, but nether the home unit argumentation that was jointly agreed to by MLB and the national successful August 2015, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has the authorization to punish players for "just cause"; helium does not request to conscionable the guilt-beyond-a-reasonable-doubt threshold required by instrumentality enforcement. On that ground, MLB felt Bauer deserved to beryllium suspended acold longer than immoderate subordinate ever had for a home unit violation. With this ruling, a 3rd enactment agreed, though to a lesser extent.

Who made the determination to trim the suspension?

A antheral named Martin Scheinman, who serves arsenic an autarkic arbitrator retained by some MLB and the MLB Players' Association. In abbreviated spurts implicit the people of 7 months, Scheinman served arsenic the caput of a three-person panel -- besides consisting of an MLB typical and a rep from the MLBPA -- that reviewed MLB's findings and spoke to witnesses. Most of the interviews took spot implicit video conference. Details were not made public, but a Washington Post story released Thursday said that astatine slightest 2 accusers testified from MLB office and much than 20 witnesses were called. The Post communicative added that the process revolved mostly astir the 3 women whose allegations became public. The San Diego pistillate whose allegation ignited this process testified 3 abstracted times, a root with cognition of the concern said.

What precisely did helium decide?

The arbitrator reduced Bauer's suspension by 130 games, but inactive ruled that Bauer deserved the longest suspension ever nether the home unit argumentation (the erstwhile precocious was 162 games). Bauer served 144 games of his suspension successful 2022, which would person near 50 for 2023. But thing of a compromise was made: Scheinman fundamentally gave Bauer partial recognition for spending the 2nd fractional of the 2021 play -- opening July 2, aft the archetypal accusations became nationalist -- connected paid administrative leave. Bauer volition beryllium docked wage for the archetypal 50 games of the 2023 season, but helium volition beryllium reinstated immediately.

What does this mean for Bauer's aboriginal successful MLB?

Because of that compromise, Bauer volition beryllium eligible to transportation connected Opening Day. As of now, helium remains nether declaration with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the last play of a three-year, $102 cardinal declaration helium signed earlier the 2021 season. Regardless of whether the Dodgers roster Bauer adjacent year, they volition beryllium him astir $22.5 cardinal of his archetypal $32 cardinal wage -- unless helium signs with different team, which would beryllium connected the hook for $720,000, the large league minimum salary.

Bauer past pitched successful a large league crippled June 28, 2021. In his archetypal 17 starts with the Dodgers, helium posted a 2.59 ERA and struck retired 137 successful 107⅔ innings. In the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season, Bauer won the National League Cy Young Award. He has continued grooming astatine his Phoenix-area facility, wherever helium regularly posts videos of him throwing.

What does this mean for the Dodgers?

The archetypal question for the Dodgers is simple: Do they bring backmost Bauer oregon merchandise him? They person fixed nary denotation publically connected what they mean to bash -- the squad successful a connection Thursday nighttime said it would remark "as soon arsenic practical" -- but a fig of players successful the Dodgers' clubhouse person privately advocated for the squad to chopped ties, careless of the result of his appeal. The Dodgers indispensable determine whether to roster oregon chopped Bauer by Jan. 6.

In presumption of Bauer's wage impact, the arbitrator's determination did alleviate immoderate of the unit connected the Dodgers' competitory equilibrium tax. Currently, according to Baseball Prospectus, Los Angeles' estimated CBT payroll for the 2023 play is $199 million. Bauer's wage for a afloat play was expected to number for $34 cardinal -- the mean yearly worth of his woody -- toward the Dodgers' CBT number. But by docking Bauer for 50 games of pay, a root said, the arbitrator reduced the Dodgers' luxury taxation load by astir $9.5 million. That would support them nether the $233 cardinal threshold, which they would person exceeded astatine Bauer's afloat salary.

If the Dodgers bash transcend the threshold for the 3rd consecutive season, the basal taxation complaint for each dollar spent from $233 cardinal to $253 cardinal would beryllium taxed 50%. Any wealth betwixt $253 cardinal and $273 cardinal would beryllium taxable to a 62% penalty. From $273 cardinal to $293 million, it would beryllium 95%, and thing supra $293 cardinal would beryllium 110%, though the Dodgers are highly improbable to travel adjacent to the precocious thresholds and could perchance enactment beneath the lowest.